GRC Report Staff

The FCA has published its first regulatory-data-driven analysis of the UK alternative investment fund (AIF) market, revealing assets under management reached GBP £1.8 Trillion in 2025, with private credit emerging as a fastest-growing segment. This baseline study will inform the FCA's proposed modernization of the UK AIFMD framework, signaling upcoming regulatory changes that compliance teams should monitor closely.

A new Federal Reserve Board FEDS Note finds that while commodity futures prices outperform simple statistical forecasting models when the futures curve is steeply sloped, futures remain biased and unreliable predictors of future spot prices, particularly during periods of market stress. For institutions that rely on futures curves to inform risk models, stress testing, valuation assumptions, or market commentary, this research underscores the need to treat futures-implied price signals with appropriate skepticism and corroborating analysis.

Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller indicated he would support holding the federal funds rate steady at the September 15-16 FOMC meeting if incoming August inflation data confirms continued disinflation, but would consider a rate hike if inflation reaccelerates. For compliance and risk teams, this data-dependent signal underscores near-term uncertainty in the rate environment that could affect asset-liability management, stress testing, and client communications.

A new Federal Reserve Board staff note quantifies how direct consumer goods imports vary significantly by state, with California (13.8%) and New Jersey (12.7%) showing the highest consumption exposure versus Nebraska and Missouri (2.6% each). For financial institutions, this analysis provides a data-driven framework to assess geographic concentrations of tariff-related cost-of-living and credit risk across state-level lending, deposit, and investment portfolios.

The FCA has banned and fined financial adviser Daniel Thomas £742,700 for recklessly giving defined benefit pension transfer advice without the required qualifications or permissions, misleading clients, his principal firm, and the regulator, and destroying client records. The case, which Mr. Thomas has referred to the Upper Tribunal, underscores the FCA's continued scrutiny of pension transfer advice and the oversight responsibilities of principal firms over appointed representatives.

The FCA has added "The FBA Investor" (@thefbainvestor), operating via stan.store, to its Warning List for providing or promoting financial services without authorization. This action reinforces the importance of due diligence on social-media-driven financial promotions and the risks UK consumers face when dealing with unauthorized entities, including loss of FSCS and Financial Ombudsman Service protections.

SEC Chairman Paul Atkins announced a proposal to fully rescind Rule 206(4)-5, the "pay-to-play" rule under the Investment Advisers Act of 1940, along with related recordkeeping requirements. Compliance teams at registered investment advisers should prepare for the potential elimination of political contribution monitoring and the two-year compensation ban, pending the formal rulemaking process and public comment period.