Bundesbank Paper Finds US SPF Bin Width Changes Distort Measured Forecast Uncertainty
A Deutsche Bundesbank discussion paper shows that changes in histogram bin widths in the US Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF) created structural breaks in measured inflation and growth uncertainty, even where true uncertainty was largely unchanged. The paper is research, not binding regulation, but it matters for compliance and risk teams that rely on SPF-based uncertainty measures in stress testing, model validation, and scenario calibration.


