DNB Finds Euro Area Monetary Policy Transmission Weakens When Uncertainty Is High
A De Nederlandsche Bank research analysis finds that a 25-basis-point tightening cuts euro area output growth by about 0.39 percentage points at its peak and inflation by 0.07 percentage points when uncertainty is low. In high-uncertainty periods, the effects are weaker and generally statistically insignificant, especially when financial and geopolitical uncertainty are elevated. The paper is not a binding rule, but it signals how central banks may think about policy intensity and communication, and it matters for institutions that model rate sensitivity and stress scenarios.


