Risk & Resilience

In this article, Graeme Keith explores the enduring influence of Nassim Nicholas Taleb’s Black Swan theory and the growing tendency to use unpredictable events as a catch-all explanation for failures in risk management and preparedness. Examining the limitations of traditional modeling frameworks, the dangers of retrospective narrative-building, and the cognitive biases that shape how organizations interpret uncertainty, Keith argues that the real lesson of Black Swan events is not that forecasting is futile, but that current approaches to modeling risk remain fundamentally inadequate for the complexity of the modern world.

The U.S. banking system entered 2026 on solid footing, with stronger earnings, healthy liquidity, and manageable credit exposure helping stabilize the industry after years of economic uncertainty. But beneath those reassuring numbers, federal regulators are increasingly focused on a more complicated reality taking shape across commercial real estate markets, cyber defense systems, fraud networks, and the rapidly evolving world of artificial intelligence.

For years, model risk management inside financial institutions followed a fairly predictable rhythm. Models were reviewed periodically. Validators examined assumptions, tested outcomes, checked documentation, and challenged methodologies that were generally understandable to humans. The systems themselves, while complex at times, were still built on structures that could usually be traced, interpreted, and explained.

The Monetary Authority of Singapore is stepping deeper into the use of artificial intelligence to counter financial crime, announcing a new collaboration with the banking sector and key public agencies aimed at strengthening scam detection capabilities.

Europe’s insurance sector remains broadly stable, but rising geopolitical tensions and market volatility are beginning to shape a more uncertain outlook, according to the latest risk dashboards from the European Insurance and Occupational Pensions Authority.

Italy’s antitrust authority has quietly drawn a line under three investigations into leading artificial intelligence providers, using the cases to tell users, clearly and upfront, when the technology might be wrong.

European football is heading toward one of its most significant regulatory shifts in decades, as the European Union prepares to bring professional clubs and agents into its anti-money laundering framework by July 2029. The move, driven by a sweeping reform package adopted in 2024, reflects growing concern among policymakers that the sport’s global scale, financial complexity, and opaque ownership structures make it vulnerable to illicit financial activity.