ECB Paper Finds Output Gap Estimates Subject to Large Revisions Driven by GDP Data and Potential Gro
An ECB Occasional Paper (No 399) analyzes revisions to output gap and potential growth estimates from the European Commission, Eurosystem, IMF, and OECD. It finds that real GDP data revisions and potential growth revisions drive most output gap revisions, and that real-time slack estimates are unreliable. This is a research publication, not a binding rule, but compliance and risk teams that rely on macroeconomic inputs in models, stress tests, and planning should treat it as a caution on model risk.


