OSFI Sets 2027 EI Break-Even Premium Rate at 1.62% with MIE Rising to USD-Equivalent CAD $70,800

Key Takeaways

• OSFI's Office of the Chief Actuary published the 2027 Employment Insurance actuarial report, projecting a 7-year forecast break-even rate of 1.62% for employees (2.27% for employers), down slightly from 1.63% in 2026.
• Maximum insurable earnings rise 2.8% to CAD $70,800, and the EI Operating Account deficit is forecast at CAD $15.2 Billion.
• Payroll, HR, and compliance teams at employers must update withholding and premium calculations, and those with qualified wage-loss plans should review the revised premium reductions.

Deep Dive

OSFI's Office of the Chief Actuary published the 2027 Employment Insurance actuarial report, projecting a 7-year forecast break-even rate of 1.62% for employees (2.27% for employers), down slightly from 1.63% in 2026. Maximum insurable earnings rise 2.8% to CAD $70,800, and the EI Operating Account deficit is forecast at CAD $15.2 Billion. Payroll, HR, and compliance teams at employers must update withholding and premium calculations, and those with qualified wage-loss plans should review the revised premium reductions.

The report supports the Canada Employment Insurance Commission's rate-setting under sections 4, 66, and 69 of the EI Act. The 7-year forecast break-even rate is 1.62% for employees and 2.27% for employers (1.4 times the employee rate before reductions), versus 1.63% and 2.28% in 2026. The Québec rate reflects a QPIP reduction of 0.35% (up from 0.33%), giving an employee rate of 1.27%. Maximum insurable earnings rise from CAD $68,900 to CAD $70,800. Maximum employee contributions become CAD $1,146.96 outside Québec and CAD $899.16 in Québec. Note that the Commission, not OSFI, formally sets the rate; the report is a forecast and recommendation basis, so final confirmation should be monitored.

EI savings from qualified wage-loss plans increase to CAD $1,687 Million from CAD $1,493 Million. Employer premium reductions rise across all categories (Category 1: 0.22%; Category 2: 0.42%; Category 3: 0.41%; Category 4: 0.46%). Employer multipliers outside Québec fall to 1.263, 1.143, 1.144, and 1.118 for Categories 1 to 4, and in Québec to 1.225, 1.072, 1.073, and 1.041. Employers with such plans should confirm category assignments and that the reduced multipliers are reflected in payroll systems.

The report incorporates program measures as of July 22, 2026: the seasonal claimant extension to October 2028; tariff-related temporary measures renewed to October 10, 2026; Work-Sharing special measures and the Worker Retention Grant through March 31, 2027; the adoption/surrogacy benefit targeted for the end of 2026; Bill C-222 parental benefit changes; and an Apprenticeship Training Grant targeted for 2027. Several are time-limited, so further extensions or lapses could alter costs and employer obligations.

The EI Operating Account deficit is CAD $15.2 Billion at December 31, 2026 (CAD $15.1 Billion in 2025). Sensitivities show upward pressure: a 0.5% higher unemployment rate gives 1.68%; a 5% higher recipiency rate gives 1.67%; a moderate shock gives 1.72%; and a high shock gives 1.91%. Each 0.01% premium change equals CAD $1,888 Million in cumulative account balance by 2033. Compliance and payroll teams should: update 2027 payroll parameters (MIE, rates, Québec differences); validate wage-loss plan reductions; budget for labor-cost changes; monitor Commission confirmation and legislative developments; and document the change management and testing performed.

Source: Office of the Superintendent of Financial Institutions